Potential Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WINE PRODUCTION AND THE STRUCTURE OF WINE CONSUMPTION IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF ROMANIA

This study was carried out with the aim of investigating and analysing different aspects related to viticulture and wine production in the northeast region of Romania. The methodology focused on the use of statistical data and field research, with an emphasis on the impact of potential climate change on wine production and consumer preferences. The analysis of the evolution of vine cultivation in the northeast region of Romania was carried out using statistical data on grape harvest, area planted to vines and wine production. The results showed significant changes in these indicators over the period analysed (2013-2022), reflecting the dynamics of the wine industry in the region. A survey of a sample of 50 respondents provided relevant data on their preferences. Analysis of this data revealed information on preferred wine types, consumption habits and purchasing preferences. Although the population‘s preference for white wine is evident, climate change may pose a challenge for the region, and in the future, it may be necessary to adapt vineyard locations and cultivate vine varieties more suitable for red wine production. These issues have important implications for planning and developing the future of the wine industry in the northeast region.

Physical Consequences of Climate Change on Agriculture: Causes and Effects

Climate is the most important predictor of agricultural productivity. Concerns about the potential impact of climate change on agriculture have motivated considerable research developments in the last few decades. The research on the physical consequences of climate change on agriculture, such as changes in crop and livestock yields, as well as the economic ramifications of these potential yield going on quite aggressively. The current review examines the information and data associated with impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and sustainability for solving this complex problem. The global food and nutrition security are at risk due to consequences of climate change.  Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, emissions from human activity, primarily from changes in land use, have resulted in a huge increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This rise is altering the climate, and it will only get worse throughout the course of the 21st century. Since agricultural systems are especially susceptible to climate change (CC), efforts to increase crop productivity while also maximizing resource efficiency and reducing environmental impact may not be successful. Not only productivity, the population of microbes and their enzymatic activities in soil are also impacted by climate change. Different strategies and technologies like zero tillage, site specific nutrient management, application of efficient irrigation system (drip) etc. are helpful to avoid the effect of climate change on agriculture and ultimately increase productivity. 

Determining the Public Health Impact of Climate Change: A National Study Using a Health Impact Assessment Approach in Wales.

Objective: Climate change is recognised as the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century and impacts on health and wellbeing through a range of factors. Due to this, the need to take action in order to protect population health and wellbeing is becoming ever more urgent. Methods: In 2019, Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change. Unlike other risk assessments, it appraised the potential impact of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales through participatory workshops, stakeholder consultations, systematic literature reviews and case studies. Results: The HIA findings indicate potential impacts across the wider determinants of health and wellbeing. For example, air quality, excess heat/cold, flooding, economic productivity, infrastructure, and community resilience. A range of impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and geographical areas. Conclusion: These findings can inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using an evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others.

Declínio da distribuição potencial das espécies de Samambaias sob cenários de mudanças climáticas

Purpose: The potential impact of climate change can lead to a reduction of up to 46% in the distribution of ferns within suitable habitats. In this study, we employed predictive models for species distribution to gain insights into the effects of climate change and edapotopographic factors on ferns, anticipating declines in forested environments particularly vulnerable.   Material and methods: The research focused on the Neotropical region, from Mexico to Patagonia, including the Caribbean islands, with an emphasis on four fern species. Nineteen climatic and nine edapotopographic variables were used to develop models for both current and future scenarios under different climate conditions. This highlighted the importance of identifying areas at risk to implement effective conservation measures.   Results and conclusion: The results illustrate the present distribution of species in the region, while projections for 2070 indicate substantial reductions in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. The study validates the hypothesis of a decline in forested areas, emphasizing the susceptibility of ferns. Furthermore, it highlights a notable loss of suitability for specific species, such as Lygodium venustum, underscoring the significance of ferns in ecosystems. The uncertainty analysis points out the robustness of the findings, emphasizing the imperative for mitigating carbon emissions and implementing conservation strategies to address forthcoming challenges in biodiversity preservation amid environmental changes.

The Role of Mangrove Forests in The Coast and Dykes West Sea Zone Protection: A Case Study in Kien Giang and Ca Mau Provinces

Purpose: The study aimed to provide a picture total of the forest and erosion status of the beach and dykes of Kien Giang and Ca Mau.   Method: There are 18 sample plots for testing. The map also includes 68 survey plots that are predefined and used as a basis for positioning in the field. The measurement indicators include tree species identification.   Results and conclusion: The level of erosion in Ha Tien’s forests varies based on tree density and environmental factors. The forest with no erosion has a thickness of 9,600 trees/ha and a stem diameter of 19 cm, while the extremely erosion forest has 2,000 trees/ha and a stem diameter of 6 cm. Topographically, Ha Tien has little erosion, while U Minh is a low-lying area with high erosion. Erosion levels are 1-2 in January-April, 4-5 in May-October and 3 in November-December. Currently, the section is divided into 28 sub-sections, with Kien Giang having 23. One sub-section is level 1, 11 sub-sections are level 2, 1 is level 3, 3 are level 4, and 3 are level 5. In Ca Mau, two sub-sections are level 4, and 3 are level 5.   Implications of the research: With climate change and rising sea levels, erosion levels tend to increase one level in sub-section areas in the coming years.   Originality/value: This study assesses forest and erosion status in Kien Giang and Ca Mau provinces, Vietnam, providing local insights into environmental challenges. It uses a rigorous methodology, analyzes erosion levels, and classifies the area into sub-sections. The study also highlights the potential impact of climate change on erosion, promoting proactive adaptation and mitigation efforts.

The impact of climate change and the conservation of the keystone Asian honeybee using niche models and systematic prioritization.

Global warming has seriously disturbed the Earth's ecosystems, and in this context, Asian honeybee (Apis cerana) has experienced a dramatic decline in recent decades. Here, we examined both direct and indirect effects of climate change on A. cerana through ecological niche modeling of A. cerana, and its disease pathogens (i.e., Chinese sacbrood virus and Melissococcus plutonius) and enemies (i.e., Galleria mellonella and Vespa mandarinia). Ecological niche modeling predicts that climate change will increase the potential suitability of A. cerana, but it will also cause some of the original habitat areas to become unsuitable. Outbreak risks of Chinese sacbrood disease and European Foulbrood will increase dramatically, while those of G. mellonella and V. mandarinia will decrease only slightly. Thus, climate change will produce an unfavorable situation for even maintaining some A. cerana populations in China in the future. Genetic structure analyses showed that the A. cerana population from Hainan Island had significant genetic differentiation from that of the mainland, and there was almost no gene flow between the 2, suggesting that urgent measures are needed to protect the unique genetic resources there. Through taking an integrated planning technique with the Marxan approach, we optimized conservation planning, and identified potential nature reserves (mainly in western Sichuan and southern Tibet) for conservation of A. cerana populations. Our results can provide insights into the potential impact of climate change on A. cerana, and will help to promote the conservation of the keystone honeybee in China and the long-term sustainability of its ecosystem services.

The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Neural Health and The Development of Neurodegenerative Disorders.

Background: The study explores the impact of climate change on neural health and the development of neurodegenerative disorders, focusing on the rising global temperatures, pollution, and increased incidence of infectious diseases as key contributors to neurological decline. The research highlights the vulnerability of populations, particularly in climate-affected regions like the Maldives. It examines the correlation between environmental stressors and the prevalence of conditions such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. Methods and Materials: Utilizing a comprehensive review of current scientific literature from sources like PubMed and Hindawi, the study integrates findings from articles, case studies, and clinical trials published within the last five years. Keywords including "neurodegenerative diseases," "climate change," "neuroplasticity," and "omega-3- fatty acids" guided the literature search, aiming to uncover novel insights into the pathogenesis and potential mitigative strategies against neurodegeneration. Results: The investigation underscores the complex interplay between climate change and neural health, revealing significant findings on the exacerbation of neurodegenerative and neurodevelopmental disorders, cognitive impairments, and mental health issues due to environmental factors. Specifically, reductions in omega-3 fatty acids attributed to climate change emerge as a critical concern, given their crucial role in neurogenesis and neuroplasticity. Conclusion: This study establishes a clear link between climate change and the acceleration of neurodegenerative disorders, emphasizing the need for targeted research and intervention strategies. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach, integrating environmental, nutritional, and therapeutic measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on neural health.

Altitudinal patterns of alpine soil ammonia-oxidizing community structure and potential nitrification rate.

Nitrogen availability limits the net primary productivity in alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which is regulated by ammonia-oxidizing microorganisms. However, little is known about the elevational patterns of soil ammonia oxidizers in alpine meadows. Here, we investigated the potential nitrification rate (PNR), abundance, and community diversity of soil ammonia-oxidizing microorganisms along the altitudinal gradient between 3,200 and 4,200 m in Qinghai-Tibetan alpine meadows. We found that both PNR and amoA gene abundance declined from 3,400 to 4,200 m but lowered at 3,200 m, possibly due to intense substrate competition and biological nitrification inhibition from grasses. The primary contributors to soil nitrification were ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), and their proportionate share of soil nitrification increased with altitude in comparison to ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB). The alpha diversity of AOA increased by higher temperature and plant richness at low elevations, while decreased by higher moisture and low legume biomass at middle elevations. In contrast, the alpha diversity of AOB increased along elevation. The elevational patterns of AOA and AOB communities were primarily driven by temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation. These findings suggest that elevation-induced climate changes, such as shifts in temperature and water conditions, could potentially alter the soil nitrification process in alpine meadows through changes in vegetation and soil properties, which provide new insights into how soil ammonia oxidizers respond to climate change in alpine meadows.IMPORTANCEThe importance of this study is revealing that elevational patterns and nitrification contributions of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) communities were primarily driven by temperature, soil moisture, and vegetation. Compared to AOB, the relative contribution of AOA to soil nitrification increased at higher elevations. The research highlights the potential impact of elevation-induced climate change on nitrification processes in alpine meadows, mediated by alterations in vegetation and soil properties. By providing new insights into how ammonia oxidizers respond to climate change, this study contributes valuable knowledge to the field of microbial ecology and helps predict ecological responses to environmental changes in alpine meadows.

Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

The gum acacia Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton (Fabales: Fabaceae) is a drought-tolerant plant belonging to the genus Acacia of the Leguminosae family, possessing significant economic and ecological value. Despite its importance, there is a knowledge gap regarding the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of S. senegal, crucial for the conservation of plant resources and optimizing its use in introductory silviculture. In this study, we selected 23 environmental variables and utilized the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of S. senegal worldwide and simulate the current and future distribution range of S. senegal in Pakistan under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios. The results highlight key environmental factors influencing the distribution of S. senegal, including BIO3 (isothermally), BIO4 (coefficient of seasonal variation of temperature), BIO11 (mean temperature of the coldest season), and BIO12 (annual precipitation). Regions with higher and less fluctuating temperatures exhibit a higher potential for S. senegal distribution. Currently, suitable habitats of S. senegal are concentrated in the southern region of Pakistan, covering provinces such as Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, with highly suitable habitats accounting for 6.06% of the total area. Under the current climatic conditions, this study identifies the spatial patterns of suitable habitats and their concentration in specific regions. With climate change, a notable expansion of suitable habitats towards higher latitudes is observed, with the most significant expansion under the extremely severe climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), reaching 223.45% of the current level. The results of this study enhance our understanding of the dynamics of S. senegal distribution under climate change and offer valuable insights into the long-term introduction of S. senegal for afforestation and soil conservation in Pakistan. This study provides theoretical support for the sustainable development of the local ecosystem and socio-economy, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to adapt to changing climatic conditions.

Potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso.

The objective of this study was to analyse the potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso. MODIS NDVI 250m time series were used to monitor changes in grassland over 2000-2022. The random forest regression (RFR) model was fit by regressing reference data of grassland cover against current climatic and other environmental predictors to predict the current grassland cover map (2022). Projected climate model data of CMIP6 used under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios were integrated into the fit RFR model to predict future change. The results revealed that grassland areas were largely dominated by non-significant productivity change (55%) during 2000-2022. In this period, grassland area knew more increased productivity (35%) than decrease (10%). Burkina Faso is predicted to face more decreased areas of grassland cover than increase by 2061-2080 under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios. The findings of this study can help to set up appropriate adaptation measures to combat climate change in Burkina Faso.

Modelling the potential impact of climate change on Carapa procera DC. in Benin and Burkina Faso (West Africa)

Modelling the potential impact of climate change on Carapa procera DC. in Benin and Burkina Faso (West Africa)

A systematic review on the potential impact of future climate change on India’s biodiversity using species distribution model (SDM) studies: trends, and data gaps

A systematic review on the potential impact of future climate change on India’s biodiversity using species distribution model (SDM) studies: trends, and data gaps

The interplay between temperature, Trypanosoma cruzi parasite load, and nutrition: Their effects on the development and life-cycle of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius prolixus.

Chagas disease, caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi transmitted by blood-sucking insects of the subfamily Triatominae, is a major neglected tropical disease affecting 6 to 7 million of people worldwide. Rhodnius prolixus, one of the most important vectors of Chagas disease in Latin America, is known to be highly sensitive to environmental factors, including temperature. This study aimed to investigate the effects of different temperatures on R. prolixus development and life-cycle, its relationship with T. cruzi, and to gather information about the nutritional habits and energy consumption of R. prolixus. We exposed uninfected and infected R. prolixus to four different temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C, and monitored their survival, developmental rate, body and blood meal masses, urine production, and the temporal dynamics of parasite concentration in the excreted urine of the triatomines over the course of their development. Our results demonstrate that temperature significantly impacts R. prolixus development, life-cycle and their relationship with T. cruzi, as R. prolixus exposed to higher temperatures had a shorter developmental time and a higher mortality rate compared to those exposed to lower temperatures, as well as a lower ability to retain weight between blood meals. Infection also decreased the capacity of the triatomines to retain weight gained by blood-feeding to the next developmental stage, and this effect was proportional to parasite concentration in excreted urine. We also showed that T. cruzi multiplication varied depending on temperature, with the lowest temperature having the lowest parasite load. Our findings provide important insights into the potential impact of climate change on the epidemiology of Chagas disease, and can contribute to efforts to model the future distribution of this disease. Our study also raises new questions, highlighting the need for further research in order to understand the complex interactions between temperature, vector biology, and parasite transmission.

Predicting current and future climate suitability for arecanut (Areca catechu L.) in India using ensemble model

Climate change has the potential to influence plant development, physiology, and distribution. Arecanut (Areca catechu L.), with its long life span of 60–70 years, thrives in a tropical habitat remains exposed to various abiotic and biotic factors. It is pertinent to comprehend the adaptation strategies of this crop towards climate change over time. The Biomod2 ensemble platform for species distribution modeling was utilized to predict the potential impact of climate change on the adaptability of the crop. The extracted study region of India was used for prediction, and the final run of 6 models ensemble includes 894 occurrence points and 9 climate variables with 80%–20% of training and validation sets. The model's outputs had area under curve (AUC) values of 0.943 and true skills statistics (TSS) of 0.741, which are regarded as accurate. The research area was categorized into five groups: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The examination involved assessing the shift in each category from the present to two prospective scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways; SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5) projected for the 2050s and 2070s. A shift in the climate suitability area from ‘very high’ and ‘high’ categories to ‘moderate’ or ‘very low’ categories was observed suggesting the need for adaptive strategies to sustain the current yield levels. Amongst the regions, Karnataka state, which at present has more than 50% area under cultivation, is highly vulnerable and more area is coming under ‘very low’ and ‘low’ categories from eastern side. Meanwhile, in north eastern part of the country a shift in high suitable region from northwest to southwest is observed. Overall, the model prediction suggests that some parts of west and south interior regions of the country warrant immediate consideration in order to adapt to future climate change, whereas some part of north east can be considered for future cultivation.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Highland Areas in Kastamonu, Turkey

This study aimed to assess the potential impact of global climate change on the highland areas of Kastamonu, a significant province in Turkey known for its numerous and varied highlands. The investigation focused on 59 selected highland locations within the region. Using the De Martonne climate classification, projections were made for four future periods (2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100) under two scenarios: SSPs 245 and SSPs 585. The outcomes of the study indicate that the highlands under scrutiny are susceptible to substantial effects from global climate change. Notably, these climatic alterations are expected to become evident within the next two decades, predominantly manifesting as a shift towards arid climate classifications. These shifts are anticipated to have a profound impact on the composition and diversity of species in the highland ecosystems. Based on the findings, it is advisable to consider interventions for the most climate-sensitive highland areas, such as facilitating the migration of species adapted to the new climate conditions and implementing initiatives to enhance species diversity. These efforts could help mitigate the potential loss of species and populations resulting from climate change.

Potential impact of climate change on the transmission of malaria in Northern Benin, West Africa

Potential impact of climate change on the transmission of malaria in Northern Benin, West Africa

Temperature seasonality drives taxonomic and functional homogenization of tropical butterflies

AbstractAimTo better understand the potential impact of climate change on butterfly assemblages across a tropical island, we model the potential for taxonomic and functional homogenization and determine climate‐ and trait‐mediated shifts in projected species distributions.LocationPuerto Rico.MethodsWe used thousands of museum records of diurnal Lepidoptera to model current (1970–2000) and forecast future (2061–2080) species distributions and combined these to test for taxonomic and functional homogenization. We then quantified climatic‐mediated effects on current and forecasted taxonomic and functional composition and, specifically, whether temperature was a primary driver, as predicted by the temperature–size rule and the thermal melanism hypotheses. Finally, we measured wing traits important in thermoregulation (size and colour) and determined trait‐mediated changes in forecasted species distributions over time.ResultsBased on ensemble model outputs, taxonomic and functional richness and turnover were predicted to vary across the island's complex topography. Our models projected an increase in taxonomic and functional richness over time, and a decrease in taxonomic and functional turnover – a signature of biotic homogenization. Under future climate scenarios, models projected a decrease in wing length and an increase in wing brightness at higher elevations. One variable, temperature seasonality, was the strongest predicted driver of both the current spatial distribution and the projected per cent change over time for not only wing traits but also taxonomic and functional richness and turnover.Main conclusionsThe species distribution models generated here identify several priority regions and species for future research and conservation efforts. Our work also highlights the role of seasonality and climatic variability on diverse tropical Lepidoptera assemblages, suggesting that climatic variability may be an important, albeit overlooked, driver of climate change responses.

On the Precursor Environments to Mountain Lee Wave Clouds in Central Iberia under CMIP6 Projections

Mountain lee waves present significant hazards to aviation, often inducing turbulence and aircraft icing. The current study focuses on understanding the potential impact of global climate change on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud episodes over central Iberia. We examine the suitability of several Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in predicting these environments using the ERA5 reanalysis as a benchmark for performance. The dataset is divided into two periods: historical data (2001–2014) and projections for the SSP5–8.5 future climate scenario (2015–2100). The variations and trends in precursor environments between historical data and future climate scenarios are exposed, with a particular focus on the expansion of the Azores High towards the Iberian Peninsula, resulting in increased zonal winds throughout the Iberian Peninsula in the future. However, the increase in zonal wind is insufficient to modify the wind pattern, so future mountain lee wave cloud events will not vary significantly. The relative humidity trends reveal no significant changes. Moreover, the risk of icing precursor environments connected with mountain lee wave clouds is expected to decrease in the future, due to rising temperatures. Our results highlight that the EC-EARTH3 GCM reveals the closest alignment with ERA5 data, and statistically significant differences between the historical and future climate scenario periods are presented, making EC-EARTH3 a robust candidate for conducting future studies on the precursor environments to mountain lee wave cloud events.

Climate Risks in the Commercial Mortgage Portfolios of Life Insurers: A Focus on Sea Level Rise and Flood Risks

In this paper, we explore the climate risk exposure of U.S. life insurers' commercial mortgage loan portfolios, focusing on sea level rise (SLR) and flood risks. While vast literature and industry reports document the potential impact of climate change on the insurance industry, most focus on the property insurance market. Life insurers hold a significant number of commercial mortgages, representing approximately 15% of their assets by the end of 2021. These investments are susceptible to both physical and transitional risks of climate change and are much less researched or understood. From 2012 to 2019, we find that the size of newly issued commercial mortgages by life insurers in the U.S. grew from $37 billion to $56 billion (by 51%). We find heterogeneity across life insurers in terms of the average loan size, the loan origination frequency, as well as loan locations. In terms of locations, life insurers tend to originate loans in metropolitan areas, many of which are on the coast. Some life insurers focus on specific geographical areas that happen to be exposed to high levels of SLR or flood risks (e.g., Florida), while some diversify across metropolitan areas (coastal or noncoastal) in the U.S. Our findings have important policy implications for regulators and researchers.

Arsenic distribution and partitioning in multiple media in a typical catchment in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau: A comparison between freshwater and saltwater lakes

Arsenic (As) has been widely detected in surface media on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP); however, the differences in the As distribution and partitioning characteristics between freshwater and saltwater lakes remain poorly understood. To determine the distribution and partitioning characteristics of As, multimedia environmental samples were collected from a typical small watershed consisting of a river, wetland, and both freshwater and saltwater lakes on the QTP. Results showed that freshwater systems, represented by Hurleg Lake, were high in particulate arsenic (PAs) and low in dissolved arsenic (DAs), whereas the saltwater system represented by Tosen Lake, exhibited the reverse distribution. This discrepancy in As distribution was primarily attributed to evaporation enrichment, competitive adsorption of HCO3− and pH variations, as suggested by correlation analysis and stable isotopic composition of water. In the stratified Tosen Lake, an increasing trend of DAs in the water column was observed, potentially driven by the reductive dissolution of Fe (hydr)oxides and bacterial sulfate reduction in the anoxic bottom hypolimnion. Conversely, Hurleg Lake maintained oxic conditions with stable DAs concentrations. Notably, PAs was elevated in the bottom layer of both lakes, possibly due to uptake/adsorption by biogenic particles, as indicated by high levels of chl.α and suspended particulate matter. These findings offer insights into the potential future impact of climate change on As mobilization/redistribution in arid plateau lakes, with implications for management policies that regulate As pollution.